Modern realigning elections (?)
Some doubt exists today as to what elections (if any) could be considered realigning elections after 1932. Although several candidates have been proposed, there is no widespread agreement:
- U.S. presidential election, 1968 -- Richard Nixon
- This election is often cited due to the innovative campaign strategy of Nixon. In running against Hubert Humphrey, he used what became known as the Southern strategy. He appealed to white voters in the South with a call for "state's rights", which they recognized as meaning that the federal government would no longer interfere on behalf of African American's civil rights as they had under Democratic presidents such as Lyndon Johnson (who passed the Voting Rights Act and Civil Rights Act of 1964). Just how conscious Nixon (or Republicans generally) were of this strategy is hotly contested. In addition, the realigning elections previously had tended to occur at 36-year intervals, lending support to this election's claim of realignment.
- Many people do not consider 1968 a realigning election because control of Congress did not change; the Democrats would control the Senate until 1980 and the House until 1994. Also missing was a marked change in the partisan orientation of the electorate.
- U.S. presidential election, 1980 -- Ronald Reagan
- In this election, Ronald Reagan won a sweeping victory over Democrat Jimmy Carter, who won only 6 states and 10% of the electoral vote. Republicans also took control of the Senate for the first time in over 25 years. Many people viewed Reagan's policies as sufficiently new to consider this a realigning election, and his iconic status within the Republican party would appear to confirm this.
- On the other hand, detractors note that control of the House did not change. In addition, the Republicans lost the Senate again 6 years later, leading some to theorize that the Senators simply rode in on Reagan's coattails, and did not represent a true shift in the ideological preferences of their constituents. Also absent was a shift in partisan alignment from public opinion polls.
- U.S. midterm election, 1994
- Republicans finally took back the House and Senate, controlling both chambers for the first time since 1952. In addition, that control has proved permanent thus far. Newt Gingrich and his Contract with America seemed like a sufficiently innovative technique to qualify, and the overwhelming nature of the Republican's victory (they gained 50-odd seats, in a chamber of only 435--the total gain in elections since has been in the single digits) would seem to make this a candidate.
- Critics note that this, unlike the others, is a midterm election. They also note the reelection of Bill Clinton in 1996, and the even partisan split in opinion polls.
